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Posts Tagged ‘**predict**’

### No Statistics Needed

Posted September 22, 2010

on:- In: Blogs | Videos
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While perusing the website Teaching College Math, I came upon a blog entitled Mathematics of Coercion. I was immediately intrigued, and discovered it was actually a review of a video on TED Talk called “Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Predicts Iran’s Future.” Apparently Mr. Bueno de Mesquita has created a model using mathematical analysis to make predictions about complicated issues involving negotiations, such as war and politics.

After watching the video, I was a bit disappointed that even though there are a couple of references to mathematics, nothing of substance is offered. He mentions game theory, and that the factorial is used in determining the number of interactions of *n* people influencing an issue, but he never explains how he quantifies the various characteristics of the “*influencers*,” or how math is used in his simulation computer program. He does state that his predictions are based on estimations of future behavior, not statistics of past behavior. So even though we don’t really know what he does use, he makes it clear what he doesn’t, and no statistics are needed!